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❶Wit:h the global population predicted to hit close to 10 billion by 2050, and forecasts that agricultural production in some regions will need to nearly double to keep pace, food security is increasingly making headlines・ @ln the UK, it has become a big talking point recently too, for a rather particular reason: Brexit・ [2]
❶ Brexit is seen by some as an opportunity to reverse a recent trend towards the UK importing food. ❷The country produces only about 60 per cent of the food it eats, down from almost three-quarters in the late 1980s. ❷A move back to 20 self-sufficiency, the argument goes, would boost the farming industry, political sovereignty and even the nation's health. ❷Sounds great—but how feasible is this vision? [3]
❶According to a report on UK food production from the University of Leeds, UK, 85 per cent of the country's total （27） land area is associated with meat and dairy production. ❷That supplies 80 per cent of what is consumed, so even covering the whole country in livestock farms wouldn't allow us to cover all our meat and dairy needs. [4] OThere are many caveats to those figures, but they are still grave. ❷To become much more self-sufficient, the UK would need to drastically reduce its consumption of animal foods, and probably also farm more intensively—meaning fewer green fields, and more factory-style production. [5] OBut switching to a mainly plant-based diet wouldn't help. ❷There is a good reason why the UK is dominated by animal husbandry: most of its terrain doesn't have the right soil or climate to grow crops on commercial basis. ❷Just 25 per cent of the country's land is suitable for crop-growing, most of which is already occupied by arable fields. ❷Even if we converted all the suitable land to fields of fruit and veg—which would involve taking out all the nature reserves and removing thousands of people from their homes—we would achieve only a 30 per cent boost in crop production. [6] Ojust 23 per cent of the fruit and vegetables consumed （29） in the UK are currently home-grown, so even with the most 23% extreme measures we could meet only 30 per cent of our fresh produce needs.❷That is before we look for the space to grow the grains, sugars, seeds and oils that provide us with the vast bulk of our current calorie intake.
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据预测，截至2050年，全球人口将达到 近100亿，而且某些地区的农业产量需要增 长近一倍才能保持供需平衡，因此粮食安全 正逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。在英国，因为 一个相当特殊的原因——英国脱欧，粮食安 全最近也成为一个热门话题° 有些人将英国脱欧视为一个机会，可以 扭转近期英国粮食进口的趋势。英国的粮食 产量仅为其粮食总消耗量的60%左右，与 世纪80年代末的近四分之三相比有所下 降。（26）这种观点认为，恢复粮食自给将 促进农业发展、维护政治主权甚至促进整个 国家的健康发展。（30）听起来不错，但这 种设想真的可行吗？ 据英国利兹大学一份关于英 国粮食生产的报告，英国土地总面积的85% 与肉类和乳制品生产有关。这些土地可以满 足英国80%肉类和乳制品的消耗。所以，即 便是将全国的土地都开垦为畜牧场，也无法 满足我们对肉类和乳制品的全部需求。 虽然这些数字已经向我们发出了多项警 告，但是现实情况依然不容乐观。为了进一 步实现粮食自给，英国需要大幅减少对动物 性食品的消耗，可能还需要更加集约化地耕 作—— 这意味着绿地会更少，而工厂式生产 会更多。 但是，转向以植物性饮食为主也无济于 事。（28）英国以畜牧业为主有充分的理由： 英国大部分地区的土壤或气候都不适合种植 经济作物。仅有25%的土地适合种植农作物， 但其中大部分已被耕地占用。即使我们将所 有适合的土地都改种水果和蔬菜——这将会 破坏所有自然保护区，还会使数以千计的人 离开自己的家园——也只能将农作物产量提 高 30%0 目前，英国消耗的水果和蔬菜只有 产自本国。因此，即使采取最极端的措 施，我们也只能满足30%新鲜农产品的需求。 这还不包括我们还需要寻找土地来种植谷物、 糖料作物、种子和油料作物，这些作物为我 们提供目前摄入的大部分热量。 $: